Analysts predicted that the CMBS loan delinquencies would level off this year but that has not been the case. Since February, Trepp reports have showed a increased in delinquencies from 9.52% to 10.34% reported in July. Manus Clancy of Trepp LLC said that they had forecasted that loans made in 2007 would mature this year and cause in inflation in the delinquency numbers. He was correct but misinterpreted how long it would last due to our economy. Now, Clancy feels that it will take a few more months for the rate to plateau and eventually start to decline. This has a lot to do with the unemployment rate staying extremely high. Multi-family, hotels, and industrial properties remain the highest property types for delinquent loans. All three of these major property types have a rate of over 11% as of July. The only property type that has actually seen improvement over the last month is retail, which has dropped to 8.03%. Although these analyses do not show promising numbers, the end of the year is expected to result decreasing rates of delinquencies. All of these numbers are directly affected by our overall economy, and without increased job growth, these numbers will continue to rise.
Barbara Lloyd, CCIM
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